The December 2012 Survey was sent out by MAS on 16 November 2012 to a total of 26 economists and analysts who closely monitor the Singapore economy. This report reflects the views received from 21 respondents (a response rate of 81%) and does not represent MAS’ views or forecasts.
GDP growth in Q3 2012 was much weaker than expected.
The Singapore economy expanded by 0.3% in Q3 2012 compared with the same period last year. This was much lower than the median forecast of 2.3% reported in the Sep 2012 Survey.
The respondents expect the economy to grow by 1.5% in 2012, a significant downgrade from the 2.4% median forecast in the previous survey.
The most likely outcome is for the Singapore economy to grow by between 1.0 to 1.9% this year, lower than the 2.0 to 2.9% projected in the previous survey.
The median CPI-All Items inflation forecast for 2012 rose to 4.7%, an increase from the 4.4% reported in the September survey. For Q4 2012, CPI-All Items inflation is projected at 4.4%.
The respondents expect MAS Core Inflation to be 2.6% in 2012, marginally higher than the 2.5% from the previous survey. As for the labour market, the respondents expect the unemployment rate to be 2.0% by year-end, slightly lower than the 2.1% from the previous survey.
Forecase for 2013
For 2013, the respondents expect GDP growth to be 2.7%, while CPI-All Items and MAS Core Inflation are forecast to come in at 3.8% and 2.2% respectively. As reflected by the mean probability distribution, the most likely outcome is for the Singapore economy to grow by 2.0 to 2.9% next year, a downshift from the 3.0 to 3.9% in the last survey.
The full results can be downloaded here: