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Do you think the market is wrong for valuing fixed payment of 5.1% forever higher? Wouldn’t a floating rate with +2.5% be more favorable to holders ? Unless, everyone is expecting interest rate to remain significantly lower than 5.1% forever.
ReplyHi Max,
Don’t forget if the floating rate gets too high, they can always redeem the preference shares.
Therefore, the downside risk is more than the upside risk.
ReplyThanks lioninvestor for your viewpoint which most likely explains the price discrepancy exist today. But i thought the downside risk is worst for investors in a rising interest rate environment where investor can be locked-in perpetually. Just my 2 c.
ReplyHi Max,
For the floating rate preference shares, there is a possibility they will get a lower interest rate in the future. And if the rates rise, they might not get the higher interest rate.
That is what I meant when I said the downside risk is more than the upside risk. To put it another way, they get the downside but not the upside.
ReplyThere are 2 preference shares paying 5.1% but I notice one of them is always higher than the other.
Can you explain where the price difference. Or more appropriately, what is the difference between the 2 types.
Thanks.
ReplyHi Francis,
one pays a fixed 5.1% forever. The other (the one issued by OCBC capital) pays 5.1% until Sep 2018. After 20th September 2018, the dividend rate will no longer be fixed at 5.1% p.a. Instead, the rate will be tied to the 3-month Singapore dollar swap offer rate plus 2.5%.
And of course, the different coupon payout dates might influence the pricing as well. One pays out in Jan/Dec, the other in Mar/Sep.
ReplyHi James,
The traded price of the preference shares is subject to market forces. Among other things, it should mirror closely bond prices.
Perhaps this post will make things clearer.
http://www.martinlee.sg/preference-shares/
If both shares are redeemed at par value, the one with the higher yield will of course be better.
ReplyHi
DBS preference share is paying out 6%
OCBC preference share is paying out 5.1
Let say the OCBC trade at $103.xxx
If I hold the share more that 3 years to 4 years the DBS will be more profitable.
Also DBS has more credit rating then then OCBC.
Will this be true.
ReplyHi Tim,
I just wrote a new post on preference shares. Hope it answers your questions.
If there are still doubts, feel free to ask again.
ReplyHey thanks for some clarifications. Im going to ask some questions which I hope u can help:
1) at the end of 5 years, if OCBC redeems,it can offer subscribers $100 or less than that? In what circumstances it will offer less than the issue price?
2) understand that it is not principal guranteed much like share purchase why would this $100 price not trade at the current ordinary price levels of $8.60 range? Is there a different class of trading market?
3) if OCBC redeems at any time at what price it will offer at redemption and what will the dependent factors be?
Maybe the answers to these questions may also be useful to other people. First time trying to understand preference share investing.
ReplyHi Tang,
I can’t really advice on whether the preference shares is suitable for you as it will depend on your financial circumstance, risk profile and investment objectives.
Good points raised for your questions.
I will answer them in a separate post as I feel the information will also be useful to other people.
ReplyHi Benjamin,
Thanks for sharing. The FAQ was actually given to me by OCBC, so it should be coherent with their sales brochure.
Yes, SGS bonds is safer. However, based on their current market prices, the yields range from 0.8% p.a. for a 1-year maturity bond to about 3.87% p.a. for a 20-year bond.
This is nothing close to what the OCBC preference shares is offering.
And as with all fixed income instruments, interest rate risk will always be there.
ReplyHi Martin,
What do you think about this OCBC preference share? Is it worth taking up? It sounds to me that it is really a good deal with fixed income at relatively low risk.
What I dont really understand is that once it is listed on SGX, will the preference share price following the ordinary share price? Also does it mean if the preference share price goes up in the future and when we sell it in the market, what our return will be profit + fixed dividend payout in the past, is that so? If we are bullish on OCBC share price, I guess this will be a good chance to subscribe the preference share?
>> If the Bank should decide to redeem, it will pay the investor the issue price of S$100 for each preference share…
According to this statement, if OCBC were to redeem the preference share in future, it will be $100/share. If the price in the market is higher than $100/share, wouldnt the investors better off just by selling off in the market?
Sorry for shooting so many questions as I am totally new to the preference shares and thanks in advance for your advise 🙂
ReplyInformative, with content coherent with OCBC’s sale brochure.
A few points to add.
1. The previous OCBC preference shares (@4.2% dividend) released in 2003 were not redeemed upon maturity; as it was “trading above par” according to OCBC in Business Times. But it’s more likely because they are cheaper funding; as compared to 5.1% in the present issue.
2. As with fixed dividend/coupon products. Interest rate risk (and inflation risk in particular) should be a major concern.
3. In line with that, a comparably safer and more liquid product: SG Govt bonds, last paid out coupons in excess of 5% for their 5 year tenure bonds as recently as 1998.
That’s some food for thought.
Reply