Martin Lee @ Sg
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Steen Jakobsen on 2H08 Asian Trade Outlook

The next speaker that I managed to catch at the Invest Fair was Steen Jakobson, the Chief Investment Officer of Saxo Capital Markets.

Steen had a very negative outlook on the state of the US economy, with the falling commodity prices a confirmation sign of the slowdown.

He also heavily critizied the money printing policies (among others) of Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan. Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, was not spared as well.

For the future, some of Steen’s views and predictions include:

  • Asia to outperform.
  • EUR/USD to drop to 1.45 before continuing the upward movement to 1.75.
  • Bearish on USD and GBP, bullish on SGD, CHF, NOK and SEK.
  • US housing bottoms around 1H2009.
  • Fed to further cut rates before hiking.
  • Europe to enter recession in 2H2008.
  • S & P to touch 1100 again.
  • Prefer bonds to equities.
  • Buy bonds in countries with inflation fighting credentials. Some of these countries include Sweden, Denmark adn Switzerland.
  • Oil stays in US$100-130 in 2008 and rises to US$200 in 2009.
  • Solar energy to take on a greater importance.

(Note: These points are shown for the benefit of sharing with you the views of Steen. Please DO NOT treat them as “sure right” or even “high probability” buy or sell calls.)

Overall, I found Steen Jakobsen’s talk highly entertaining as well as insightful. He held nothing back in giving us his views of the current state of market affairs. It was impactful without any type of “window-dressing“.

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1 comment
TSK says 10 years ago

I agree with his view, especially his closing remarks – dun listen to the paid analysts and journalists, do your own homework. My homework is in tune with his view, the bear market is here to stay for the next 4-7 years or more. I’ve these posted and explained my blog as well – smartinvesting18.blogspot.com. Cheers!

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